Dubaism - Overconfidence Outgrowth

Everyday, just at the start of the morning, one of our directors representing a commercial arm of our organization comes to our office. She fancies leaning on my desk as she gives us statistics on the worth of her clothing and updated tally of her designer wear. She systematically elevated herself to company fashion consultant until I set on a journey to find out exactly how much she knows about fashion. I prepared her daily researched questions, my intention was not to get factual answers but rather to weigh the heavy conviction with which a false response would descend on my ears. In about one hundred days I asked the same person/specimen random questions, she surprisingly had an idea about everything I've been asking since last Halloween. I heard every line from her except this "I don't know" She was severely wrong 90% of the time but her voice tone was right. My conclusion was that she does not know her knowledge perimeter, her mind filthy with self-assurance which influenced and broadened my focus on this behavioral dishonesty called overconfidence.

How much confidence shall we have on our own knowledge? What is the difference between what we actually know and how much we think we know? In a country where two thirds of the entire population have the same employer, an economist has the audacity to publish his/her forecast bad-times for the hospitality industry in Gulf countries, and following his/her prediction some thousands of people loose their jobs. The actual economic result drifts an economic professor from the mark than it does to bartender. The effect of overestimating our knowledge and abilities is not even counter balanced by the opposite, under-confidence even at the crest of disappointing production.


It is actually observed that there is overconfidence among most people and of a kind that even the imprudent cannot tolerate. This amazing phenomenon is not only limited to actors or news anchors who with utter tranquility read and act from a script they hardly understand. Find men and women in the offices, eateries, public transportations and even the places of worship here in Dubai, the challenge of confidence always confronts us, everyone feels the need to beat the odds by holding the diversity to its feet. As a result the ex-pats tend to overestimate their knowledge and lack skepticism of their predictions which somehow always favour the dejected scenario.

There is no need for me to write to you about this, for I know your eagerness to spell out your philosophies especially to those who you do not share a common heritage. But excuse me for a minute, haven't you been confusing competence with confidence from the way this two are mixed up? Competence is making every effort to live whereas the only place where it is alive is in peoples lips, on the other hand fear and unhappiness makes fertile breeding environment for overconfidence which spring up like grass. In the absence of overconfidence, restaurateurs wouldn't dream of owning  anything in the direction of the next McDonalds. It is however easy to spot overconfidence in the people living in Dubai than a man in the wrong suit size.

The overconfidence effect has driven away finesse from our interactions.Seemingly it is becoming hard to separate poise, calmness and self-possession from overconfidence which by now is at the chronic stages. Motivation to take in and process new information has reduced. Without apology or guilt people copy one another's behaviors, they no longer hide the borrowed traits, some will go the extra sentence and as far as give you names of the people they are trying to act like. Afew months ago, there was a very formal board of directors meeting that happens every quarter of the year, the board member scheduled to do presentation showed up dressed like Michael Jackson, through him I discovered that male nether region is actually flat without arousal. He intended for his dressing to be a cool idea, a mini giant in green woolen socks, brown coat and pant that could explode any minute.  I could have borrowed his dressing idea for use in one of my articles as a fashion highlight rather than overconfidence precaution. He is fully aware his dressing is unacceptable but went ahead.

What makes overconfidence so extensive and established and its effects so misidentified is because its not driven by incentives, it is inborn. Confirmedly not only optimists are victims of overconfidence, pessimists too are  just as extreme.